Los Angeles Times

Saturday, May 23, 1998

POLL ANALYSIS
Prop. 227 Remains Strong
By SHARON PINKERTON, Times Associate Poll Director

In the absence of a strong campaign against it, Prop. 227 appears to be coasting toward victory on election day. There has been no change in the high level of support for the English-only initiative since it was last measured in April. Prop. 226, the union dues measure, however, has taken a hit. Support has dropped precipitously since opponents of the measure launched a paid media campaign against it. Down-ballot races have yet to catch the attention of the electorate and most voters remain undecided.
      With just over one week until the June 2 primary election, Prop. 227, a measure that would essentially end bilingual education in public schools throughout the state, continues to hold a high level of support according to a recent Los Angeles Times poll. Despite a recently launched--but limited--television advertising campaign against the measure (and no televised media campaign by its proponents) nearly two-thirds of voters would vote yes to pass the measure if the election were held today. Unlike Prop. 227, Prop. 226, which would require unions to get permission from members before using union dues for political purposes, has lost significant support. This decline reflects the barrage of advertising by opponents of the measure.
      Voters have heard little from candidates for down-ballot races. As a result, with less than two weeks before they will be asked to decide California's next leaders, most voters remain uncertain about for whom they will cast their vote on June 2 and most races remain wide open.

Prop. 227: The English language in public schools initiative

      Prop. 227 continues to receive strong and broad-based support among the California electorate as a whole and among voters most likely to turn out to vote on June 2. When voters were first asked their opinion of Prop. 227 and told only that it "deals with teaching English language in public schools," 38% of registered voters and 44% of likely voters said they would vote in favor of the measure and just 17% of registered voters and 19% of likely voters said they would oppose it. The remaining 45% of registered and 37% of likely voters were uncertain. This result has changed little from one month ago when a Times poll found that 33% of registered voters and 40% of likely voters favored the measure, 12% of registered voters and 13% of likely voters opposed it and 55% of registered voters and 47% of likely voters were uncertain.
      After hearing the ballot language, support rises dramatically, with 63% of both registered and likely voters now saying they will vote for the measure. Just 25% of registered voters and 23% of likely voters would oppose it (the remaining 12% and 14%, respectively, were uncertain). Again, there was little change from one month ago when 63% of registered and likely voters said they would vote in favor of Prop. 227 and 24% of registered and 23% of likely voters said they would vote against it (13% and 14%, respectively, were uncertain at that time). If opponents of Prop. 227 fail to get out their messages against the measure in the short period of time remaining in the campaign, Prop. 227 will most likely pass on election day.
      Prop. 227 continues to draw support across party lines, with 61% of registered Democrats, 59% of independents and 66% of Republicans saying they would vote in favor of Prop. 227 after hearing the ballot language. There has been a slight increase in opposition among registered Democrats and independents, although support remains solid. There was little difference between registered and likely Democrats and Republicans (there were too few likely independent voters for analysis). Support is also strong regardless of ideology, with 50% of registered liberals, 71% of moderates and 66% of conservatives supporting the measure after hearing the ballot language. Moderates have shown the greatest increase in support, up 11 points from 60% one month ago. Liberals have shown the greatest decline, dropping from 61% in April to 50% in the current survey, with their opposition increasing from 27% to 39%. Liberals most likely to vote on election day show an even lower level of support, with 44% saying they will vote in favor of the measure and 45% saying they will oppose it. There was little difference among moderates and conservatives between those most likely to vote and all registered voters.
      The English-only measure receives similarly high levels of support among men and women registered and likely voters. More educated voters show a greater level of opposition, albeit with a still high level of support.
      Latino support for Prop. 227 has actually increased from one month ago. In the current poll, 62% of registered Latinos said they would support the measure--up 12 points from 50% in April (64% of registered whites and 65% of likely white voters support Prop. 227 in the current survey). Latinos most likely to vote are only slightly less supportive of the measure. The increase in support among Latinos goes against the trend seen with Prop. 187 and Prop. 209 where Latino support declined as election day drew near. There are a number of potential reasons for the sustained Latino support. First, Prop. 227 has failed to generate the level of attention that either Prop. 187 or Prop. 209 garnered. As a result voters have less information and the measure has received less scrutiny. Furthermore, improving education is universally appealing to voters, regardless of race. Many Latinos may see this measure as making positive change in their children's education and providing new and better alternatives.
      A majority of voters in favor of Prop. 227 said that they support the measure because they believe you need to speak English if you live in the United States. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters and 55% of likely voters gave this response as one of the top two reasons why they are voting in favor of the Unz initiative. Another 11% of registered and 10% of likely voters said they would support the measure because they prefer English immersion programs over bilingual education, 12% of registered voters and 15% of likely voters would vote yes because they believe bilingual education hurts students who are not fluent in English and 10% of registered voters and 15% of likely voters are voting for the measure because they believe bilingual education is not effective.
      Opponents of the measure cite a diverse set of reasons as well, but no one reason overwhelms the others. Fourteen percent of registered and likely voters oppose the measure because they believe it costs too much. Another 13% of registered and 10% of likely voters believe non-English speaking students will fall behind if this measure passes, and 12% of registered and 13% of likely voters believe the measure is discriminatory. Just 13% of registered voters and 10% of likely voters said they were opposing Prop. 227 because they believe bilingual education works.